Understanding the Forecast Chart
The forecast chart shows three lines:- Predicted CCU (solid blue): The model’s best estimate
- Upper bound (dashed, lighter): Optimistic scenario
- Lower bound (dashed, lighter): Conservative scenario
What Affects Forecast Accuracy
More history = better predictions
More history = better predictions
Games with 30+ days of CCU history produce more reliable forecasts than recently tracked games.
Seasonal patterns matter
Seasonal patterns matter
Prophet automatically detects weekly patterns (weekday vs. weekend) and seasonal trends (holiday spikes).
Updates can break patterns
Updates can break patterns
A major game update can shift CCU dramatically. Forecasts based on pre-update data may not reflect the new reality until enough post-update data accumulates.
Forecast Horizons
| Plan | Forecast Range |
|---|---|
| Explorer | — |
| Builder | 7 days |
| Studio | 30 days + confidence intervals |
Tips
- Compare forecast vs. actual: Check back after a few days to see how the prediction held up
- Watch the trend, not the number: The direction matters more than the exact CCU value
- Use with benchmarking: Combine forecasts with genre benchmarks to understand if growth is above or below genre norms